Azerbaijan and the West are growing closer, while Armenia has chosen the path of Russia and Vladimir Putin’s vassal state.
Mere money is not the same as the ability to hold a necessary resource hostage, and Moscow knows it.
Each day is a new day. If Europe fails to seize its chances at the end of this month, or if the hurdles before the Eastern Partnership nations are too great, Putin may yet have another chance — the only chance he needs.
There is a tragedy here, one that goes even beyond the thousand and one failures of governance that marks this as perhaps the very worst run of the former Soviet Republics.
Brussels and Washington must do what they have been reluctant to do for years and forthrightly assert their interests in the face of opposition.
The coming months and years will be a test of leadership in the EU and Ukraine, as Russian intransigence and vengeance will undoubtedly come with heavy clubs.
A critical moment is approaching in November, when Ukraine and the European Union are set to sign an historic Association Agreement and create a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. Russia is determined to stop this.
Culturally, Armenia is closer to Russia than it is to Europe as a whole, and proximity and the relationships of their respective ruling classes make a closer union between the old Soviet states more likely than not in the long run.
The cost of this increasingly intimate embrace with Moscow has been, and continues to be in the future, economic disaster for the dictatorship of Aleksandr Lukashenko.
While some observers, such as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, see the ECU as a genuine attempt to improve economic prospects for the developing nations of the former USSR, Ukraine is wise to remain wary.