The Eastern Partnership failed because it was not an Eastern Partnership, it was an Eastern Condescension.
A hard government need not have a poor economy. It is a testament to Lukashenko and his cronies that they can neither manage functional democracy nor economic growth.
Whether this turns into something (slightly) larger or not is yet to be seen. The larger question is not so much how Belarus blunders (that it will blunder is a given), but rather how the European Union reacts.